Research

My research concerns how people reason and construct arguments in discourse.

From a logical point of view, people seem to make many errors and biases in their deductive reasoning. However, from a probabilistic point of view, these 'errors' are the rational result of people being more sensitive to the strength of an argument defined using Bayesian probability theory rather than to deductive validity.

This approach can also be generalised to account for the differential strength of the informal argument fallacies that have accrued in logic text books since Aristotle. This research involves experimental work and modelling the resulting inferential behaviour. I am also interested in how the emotions, both experienced and anticipated, affect people’s reasoning and decision making.