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The Rational(?) Status of the Conjunction Effect

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Venue: Birkbeck Main Building, Malet Street

No booking required

Birkbeck Psychology Wed lunchtime seminar

Dr Emmanuel Pothos, City University.

The Rational(?) Status of the Conjunction Effect.

Abstract:

The conjunction fallacy has been one of the key empirical findings questioning the rational status of human probabilistic reasoning. Recently, some researchers have provided an account of the conjunction fallacy based on the probabilistic framework from quantum theory: using quantum probabilities, the conjunction fallacy is no longer an incorrect decision. But is it rational? Most researchers (in psychology at least) equate rational decision making with consistency with Bayesian inference and, superficially at least, the conjunction fallacy is at odds with Bayesian inference. I will discuss the quantum approach to the conjunction and explore whether a rational perspective to this important result can be provided.

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