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Economics/Finance seminar: Subjective and Ex Post Forecasting Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

Starts Mar 14, 2013 12:30 PM

Finishes Mar 14, 2013 02:00 PM

Venue Malet Street, Room 745

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Free entry; first come, first seated

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Event description

Speaker: Michael Clements (University of Warwick)

Abstract

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons.

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School/department website http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/

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May 2013

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